Would a Northern Ireland Border Poll Suitably Conclude the Backstop?

With Brexit negotiations reaching a critical juncture, one proposal that has been floating around is the implementation of a Northern Ireland border poll as a mechanism to determine if the region should remain part of the United Kingdom. This article explores whether such a poll could effectively address the concerns surrounding the backstop provisions of the Brexit agreement.

Understanding the Backstop

The backstop is a provision designed to prevent a hard border from emerging between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It came into effect as a part of the Withdrawal Agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union. The mechanism keeps Northern Ireland aligned with EU rules to ensure the four freedoms of the Single Market and Customs Union.

However, the backstop's permanence is a significant point of contention. Proponents of leaving the backstop argue that a border poll in Northern Ireland would provide a clearer path forward. This poll, in theory, would allow Northern Ireland to secede from the UK should the majority of voters choose to do so, effectively ending the backstop. This concept is based on the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which granted a right to a border poll.

Challenges and Limitations

Is a simple 50% plus one threshold sufficient to trigger Northern Ireland's secession from the UK? While the exact mechanics of voting have not been set, the idea hinges on this notion. However, the complexity of the situation cannot be understated:

The Republic of Ireland would need to hold its own border poll to accept Northern Ireland's integration within the EU. Signs from commentators suggest that the Republic of Ireland may have implicitly accepted Northern Ireland's inclusion in the EU framework since the Good Friday Agreement.

In practical terms, if Northern Ireland were to vote to leave the UK, the backstop would become either the region's permanent arrangement or irrelevant for the remainder of the UK. This outcome is contingent on Northern Ireland remaining within the EU Customs Union and the Single Market, which is a significant consideration.

Current Sentiments and Prospects

While the sentiment among pro-United Ireland voters is on the rise, current indications suggest a narrow preference for staying within the UK. Respondents, including those in the Unionist camp, are overwhelmingly in favor of:

Keeping the border open and unrestricted. Maintaining an Irish Sea 'border' for travel and logistics. Continuing regulatory alignment with the EU.

The majority are not showing a preference for leaving the UK, at least not at this time. Therefore, a border poll at this juncture might not yield a clear outcome that fulfills any of these sentiments, as it does not reflect opinions on specific agreements like the Theresa May deal or the backstop.

The Absence of Alternatives

One of the most critical aspects of the backstop discussion is the lack of viable alternatives. The mere idea of a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is considered far too risky by many. Any plan to replace the backstop must be robust and capable of being implemented by March 2020 or by the end of 2020. This timeline is crucial as the UK needs to be prepared for every contingency.

Can anyone suggest a reasonable alternative? Without a concrete answer, the current dissatisfaction with the backstop is understandable. The EU's stance ensures strong alignment with the Republic of Ireland, which is a full member of the Union. Simply finding an alternative that meets the UK's needs without sacrificing the integrity of the EU is a tall order.

Conclusion and Reflection

The debate around the backstop and potential solutions is complex and multifaceted. A Northern Ireland border poll is an intriguing idea, but it requires careful consideration of how it aligns with the interests of all parties involved. The absence of alternative plans that can be implemented swiftly is a significant barrier to moving forward.

Ultimately, the decision to maintain or alter the backstop is a significant political and economic issue. Any solution that risks the stability and peace in Northern Ireland is not one the majority of the UK population, especially those who voted for Brexit, would be willing to support. The UK parliament must consider the larger implications of their decisions and whether the benefits outweigh the costs.