Why Did Everyone Expect Hillary Clinton to Win the 2016 Election, Despite Her Likability Issues?
It is a well-known fact that the 2016 United States Presidential Election was not a straightforward victory for either side. Despite the overwhelming support and endorsements from mainstream media (MSM) and political circles, many were left scratching their heads in confusion as to why Hillary Clinton's win was such an unforeseen shock.
Understanding the Misleading Expectations
The expectations of a Clinton victory in the 2016 election were heavily influenced by the media narrative. This narrative presented Clinton as the frontrunner, with polls and pundits predicting her success. However, several underlying factors combined to create a perfect storm, resulting in her failure to secure the White House.
Miscalculations and Political Disadvantages
The primary miscalculation by the media and political observers was in underestimating the power and fervor of Republican voters and the electoral college system. A significant portion of the American electorate lacks the motivation to vote for a candidate they see as representing the status quo, even though the alternative might offer no better option. Moreover, the electoral college system tends to favor candidates from the right, which played a critical role in Clinton's loss.
Needing Trump to Take Seriously
Another critical oversight was underestimating Donald Trump's campaign and its impact. Trump was more than just a publicity hound; he was a determined and savvy political strategist with a knack for turning public sentiment against his opponents. The failure to recognize the true nature of Trump's campaign contributed to the events that unfolded on election night.
An Excellent Candidate with a Road to Victory
Contrary to popular belief, Clinton was not an unlikable candidate. In fact, she was a competent and experienced political figure who provided a strong and stable platform for the Democratic Party. However, her failure to connect with a significant portion of the electorate can largely be attributed to her campaign strategy and the political climate.
Democrats' Struggle with Safe Candidates
The Democratic base tends to prefer safe and familiar candidates. This inclination often results in the selection of individuals who do not challenge the status quo, leading to predictable and often underwhelming campaigns. Indeed, many complaints about the Democratic National Committee (DNC) are centered around their reluctance to take risks with their candidates. While Clinton represented a more traditional brand of liberalism, the voters who supported Bernie Sanders were looking for something different.
Failed Messaging and Poor Campaign Execution
The failure of Clinton's campaign was not just about her likability but also about the messaging and execution. The Democratic party has consistently failed to communicate its values and achievements effectively, leading to electoral losses that should have been preventable. Clinton's campaign, while well-funded and well-organized, struggled to counteract the negative narratives and misinformation spread by her opposition during the election campaign.
The Results of an Uneven Battleground
One of the most significant oversights was the failure to take into account the electoral college advantage. The electoral college system is designed to give an advantage to politically strong states, which often have a right-leaning swing. This system played a critical role in Donald Trump's victory, despite Clinton's popular vote win.
Post-Election Reflections and the Role of Key Figures
Clinton's assertion that she won the popular vote by three million votes is a testament to her campaign's success in winning individual support, albeit in lower numbers than Trump's. However, it is also important to acknowledge the significant role played by figures like James Comey, who influenced the election with his controversial intervention in the FBI's investigation. Had Comey not played a crucial role in misleading the public and potentially swaying the election in Trump's favor, the outcome may have been different.
The Impact of a Brainwashed Base
A common narrative in the post-election era was the idea that Clinton's base was brainwashed and that she ran a campaign that made her seem untouchable. While there is merit to these arguments, it is essential to recognize that the right-wing media played a significant role in shaping public opinion and amplifying negative narratives about Clinton. The poisoning of public opinion against Clinton, fueled by deep-seated sexism and a desire to see a female president, created a fertile ground for misinformation and manipulation during the election.
Conclusion
The 2016 election was a complex and multifaceted event shaped by various factors. While Clinton's campaign was not without its flaws, the impact of systemic issues, including the electoral college, media bias, and the strategic use of misinformation, played a crucial role in the outcome. Moving forward, a deeper understanding of these factors is essential to ensure a more democratic and fair electoral process in future elections.