Who Are Trump Supporters in California's Blue States?

During the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump not only lost to Hillary Clinton in traditionally Democratic states such as California and New York but also managed to garner nearly a third of the votes. This is a telling sign of residual support he has, despite his well-documented political divide and a somewhat unified opposition in these areas. This article delves into the demographics and geographic pockets of these supporters within the context of San Francisco, California.

A Snapshot of the 2016 Election in San Francisco

I reside in San Francisco, a city dominated by progressive ideals and a reliably Democratic electorate. Although the city is synonymous with left-leaning politics, the 2016 election results reveal a more complex narrative. According to the LA Times database, a meticulous accounting tool that tracks every voting precinct in the state, the voting distribution was stark: Hillary Clinton received 761 votes, while Donald Trump polled 14. Jill Stein, a Green Party candidate, garnered 17 votes, which is notably higher than the winning number, indicating the presence of a sizeable alternative vote base.

Neighborhood Insights in the Castro District

In my neighborhood, the Castro district in San Francisco’s Central District, the political landscape is even more pronounced. It is perhaps the most reliably Democratic constituency in the entire country, with practically all residents adhering to liberal ideologies. The Castro neighborhood is a bastion of progressive thought, where any disagreement is often met with a dismissive or mocking comment, sometimes referred to locally as “a Trump supporter.” Interestingly, this term is used so widely that it can be a rather mild insult, perceived as something akin to an outdated concept in this overwhelmingly progressive community.

Mapping the Regional Vote

Here is a map of the San Francisco Bay Area vote during the 2016 election. What stands out is nearly the entire map being colored either cobalt blue or light blue, indicative of overwhelming support for Clinton. However, there are three blocks west of the East Bay Hills that do not appear blue. These blocks represent precincts with so few votes cast (fewer than five) that they could not be displayed on the map.

The few remaining pinkish blocks east of the hills represent the last semi-rural areas of the Bay Area. Among these, only one district near Brentwood in Contra Costa County shows a semi-red hue, with Trump receiving over 59% of the vote. This small exurb with a predominantly white population mirrors the demographic trends of rural California in the 1980s, suggesting a resemblance to how California looked during that era.

Demographic Insights into Trump Support

Understanding who these Trump voters are in California requires a nuanced look at demographic data. In 2016, Trump received 45% of the white vote, as opposed to 50% for Clinton. Moreover, white men were 50-43% likely to vote for Trump, highlighting clear gender political divisions within the vote. Among these supporters, the demographic is predominantly older rural white voters.

However, this pattern is not exclusive to rural areas. California’s bulk of the population is concentrated along the coast in urbanized areas, but its physical landscape is predominantly rural. The Trump voter can be considered a more extreme representation of the GOP’s overall stance in the state. Ethnic minority growth, particularly immigrant populations, is pushing urban and suburban areas towards more blue-leaning political landscapes, a trend with which Trump and his supporters are combating.

Current Political Landscape in California

Today, the urban areas of California remain resilient bastions of Democratic power, while Orange County, once seen as a heartland of Reagan Republicanism, is now entirely Democratic. In fact, the GOP does not control a single seat in the state that touches the coast. It’s clear that the political tide in California is shifting, moving further Democratic in both urban and exurban areas.

The election of Donald Trump hastened this inevitability, as the Democratic party began importing a reliable voting bloc. Although this shift is undeniable, it’s essential to recognize the complexities within these transformations. Trump supporters in California might indeed be a vanishing demographic, but their presence served as a clear reminder of the enduring political divides that exist in such overwhelmingly blue states.