Trump's Self-Pardon Bid: Legal Scrutiny and the Path Ahead

When will Trump try to pardon himself for his crimes, and will it work?

What is a Pardon and Why Doesn't It Work Here?

First and foremost, it is important to understand that in order for there to be a pardon, a crime must have occurred, and a pardon cannot be used as a preemptive measure. This is not similar to the game of Monopoly, where one might keep a Get Out of Jail Free card just in case certain events happen in the future. In the case of a self-pardon, Trump would need to have been indicted for a crime in order for any pardon to be relevant. The reason for this stems from the ongoing lack of federal investigations against him.

The Current Legal Context and Investigation Status

Currently, none of the ongoing investigations in relation to Trump are federal investigations. This means that a presidential pardon would not be applicable to indictments that come from New York State. For example, the Manhattan District Attorney's office (SDNY) is actively investigating Trump, and his pardon powers do not extend beyond federal cases.

Deep Trouble and the Role of Legislation

As the court system has recently demonstrated, facts and evidence carry the day in legal proceedings. It is mush more impactful than bombastic and irrational rhetoric. There is a strong possibility that Trump might be relying on incompetent legal representation as a potential defense. Keeping a legal team such as Sydney Powell around may be a strategic choice to potentially appeal on such grounds should he face conviction.

Historical Precedent and the Uniqueness of Self-Pardons

Historically, there is no precedent for a US President or Governor pardoning themselves. For instance, when Richard Nixon considered self-pardoning, it was ultimately shot down for being impractical. Therefore, the idea of Trump pardoning himself is not grounded in any legal or historical basis.

The Presidential Pardon Process

If Trump were to try to pardon himself, it would be a significant legal challenge. It would not be the first time a US President pardoned someone, but self-pardoning would be a first uniquely unprecedented. Nixon's resignation and subsequent pardon by Gerald Ford offer a precedent. Since self-pardoning lacks legal precedent, any court would likely scrutinize such a move closely. Consequently, the likelihood of it being upheld in the Supreme Court or any lower federal courts would be minimal.

Legal Strategies and Timing

Given the current legal climate and the absence of clear legal grounds for a self-pardon, Trump's better strategy may be to resign and allow Vice President Mike Pence to issue the pardon. This tactic would mirror the exact situation that occurred when Nixon resigned, and Ford pardoned him. By utilizing a pre-established precedent, the legal grounds for such an action would be much more robust and less likely to be challenged in court.

From a strategic standpoint, Trump's advisors and legal team are likely working on ensuring that any potential pardon is legally sound. The window of opportunity for a self-pardon would be limited; it is unclear whether it would be possible after the conclusion of his presidency. Trump and his team must consider the legal ramifications carefully and act accordingly to avoid any unforeseen legal hurdles.

It is crucial for any individual, especially one in a position of power, to understand the legal implications of such actions. Trump's advisors are likely educating him on the intricacies of the legal system and the potential consequences of any action he takes, including a self-pardon.

Key Points:

No crimes need to be pardoned since no indictments from federal sources exist. The date range for a potential self-pardon is between November 4, 2020 (election day), and January 19, 2021 (day before his term ends). The legality of such a move is highly questionable, and it would likely be decided by the Supreme Court. Resignation followed by a pardon by Pence could be a more viable and legally sound strategy.

Disclaimer: This analysis reflects the current legal and investigative landscape. As with any legal situation, the outcome remains uncertain until a court or legal body renders a decision.