Understanding the Likely Consequences of a Ukrainian Surrender
Ukraine's current conflict with Russia is intensely complex and multifaceted, driven by geopolitical interests, historical grievances, and ideological differences. A scenario where Ukraine were to surrender would likely lead to a grim and harsh existence for Russian populations within occupied Ukrainian territories. The international community's response, particularly Western support, would play a pivotal role in shaping the aftermath.
Unwelcome Hostile Invaders
If Ukraine surrenders, Russian forces would effectively become unwelcome invaders, much like they are currently perceived in the occupied territories. Expectations suggest that any form of resistance, whether spontaneous or organized, would be met with severe reprisals. The historical precedent set by occupied nations, such as France during World War II and Afghanistan under Soviet occupation, provides insights into the likely treatment of Russian citizens in Ukraine.
Severe Persecution and Brutality
The occupation of Ukraine would likely see a repeat of the darkest moments from previous conflicts, including imprisonment, torture, and collective punishment. Russian forces, guided by the FSB and other forces of authority, will likely employ similar methods as seen during the Nazi occupation and Soviet era, especially if they are supported by the international community. This could include mass arrests, public executions, and the implementation of inhumane regulations to control the civilian population.
Garnering Support for Resistance
It is noteworthy that Ukrainian resistance is already being funded and equipped by the West, including contributions from individuals like myself. The presence of advanced weapons, such as anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems, as well as drones and secure communication devices, would bolster local resistance efforts. If Ukraine were to fall, the level of support would significantly increase, making it harder for Russian troops to maintain control.
Intensified Conflict and Casualties
The situation would evolve from a war between two sovereign nations to a full-scale insurgency, where every Russian soldier, official, or collaborator would be at constant risk. Even those not actively involved would face threats. Russian civilians and officials could anticipate robust resistance efforts, which might extend beyond Ukrainian borders. Areas such as Europe, Chicago, Las Vegas, New York, and Texas, might see direct conflicts as resistance networks grow and international aid continues to pour in.
Expect to See Violent Retaliation
Ukrainian civilians, who currently support the war effort, would not necessarily welcome Russian occupation. Historically, many occupied peoples have succumbed to fear and coercion, choosing to endure rather than resist. However, there will undoubtedly be a significant minority who will fight back, disobey orders, engage in espionage, and form resistance cells. The aggressive response from Russia would likely include severe retributive measures, such as collective punishment and the widespread use of repressive apparatuses like the NKVD.
Art of Survival and Opposition
The survival of civilians in an occupied Ukraine would depend on their ability to navigate the complex and dangerous landscape. Small acts of defiance, such as unofficial boycotts, sabotage, and the harboring of resistance fighters, could provide a basis for larger, more organized movements. The international community, aware of the potential for widespread suffering, would need to carefully balance humanitarian concerns with strategic interests to mitigate exacerbation of the conflict.
In summary, the fall of Ukraine to Russian control would not be merely an overtaking of territory. It would represent a profound shift in the lives of Ukrainian citizens and Russian populations within the occupied territories. The West’s involvement in supporting the resistance will intensify the already dire situation, creating a scenario where violence and repression are likely to be commonplace.