The Hypothetical Capture of Moscow by the Wagner Group
The scenario of the Wagner Group capturing Moscow is quite intriguing. If the Wagner Group were to succeed in this formidable task, several factors might come into play. Firstly, many speculate that Vladimir Putin could retreat to Vladivostok and continue his rule from there, particularly if he were to perceive a significant threat to Moscow. However, this is a mere speculation and not a guaranteed outcome.
Wagner's Potential Resistance and Resistance to Wagner
Wagner is a Bunch of Fascist Thugs
Wagner, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, is perceived as a group of fascist thugs who should be dealt with severely. While the desire to see them fail is strong, there is a glimmer of interest in imagining what they might do if they attempted to capture Moscow. It’s almost as if Prigozhin crossed the Rubicon and then went back for a swim.
However, it is crucial to recognize that the current political landscape in Russia poses significant challenges to the Wagner Group’s ambitions. The Kremlin and Ministry of Defense would not necessarily side with the Wagner Group and its leader, Prigozhin. There is substantial evidence suggesting that the Wagner Group would encounter substantial resistance.
Historical Precedents and the August Coup
Historical events provide valuable insights into this hypothetical scenario. For instance, the August 19, 1991, coup attempt by hardliners to topple the Soviet government is instructive. While the coup ultimately failed within four days, leading to President Mikhail Gorbachev’s return to Moscow, the collapse of the Soviet Union followed shortly thereafter, within months.
Even if the Kremlin leaders were humiliated, it is unlikely that they would abandon Putin. The leader’s potential retreat to Vladivostok would be a last resort, and it is improbable that he would willingly hand over power nor abandon his strategic operations.
Moscow: A Gigantic Metropolis
Moscow is not your typical city. With a population of over 15 million people, it is a sprawling metropolis that defies quick conquest. The city’s infrastructure, including the metro system, is extensive and efficient, reducing travel times to a minimum. Such a vast urban landscape would be a logistical nightmare for any invading force, even if it consisted of highly trained mercenaries.
Back in history, the Germans struggled to capture Stalingrad, a city with approximately 400,000 inhabitants, despite their massive army strength. Meanwhile, the Russians found it challenging to take Mariupol from a few thousand Ukrainian defenders and even faced difficulties in Bakhmut. How could an army of 20,000 mercenaries hope to capture a city that sprawls like Moscow?
Even if the Wagner Group had tens of thousands of additional mercenaries, taking Moscow would be an insurmountable task. Significant military power, such as the entire U.S. Army or Russian forces genuinely intent on removing Putin from the Kremlin, would be necessary.
The Realistic Limitations
Realistically, taking Moscow is far beyond the capabilities of any mercenary force. The primary barriers are:
Nuclear Deterrence: The threat of nuclear retaliation makes any large-scale military operation extraordinarily dangerous. Public Support: Despite the blunder in Ukraine, President Putin retains substantial support from the majority of Russians.Therefore, the likelihood of the Wagner Group successfully capturing Moscow appears highly improbable. The logistical, political, and military factors make such a scenario exceedingly unlikely.
In conclusion, while the possibility of the Wagner Group capturing Moscow is an interesting what-if scenario, it is fraught with numerous challenges that make such a feat nearly impossible. The hypothetical scenario is ultimately a reflection of the complicated and dynamic nature of Russian politics and military strategy.