Did Obama Really Win the Popular Vote?

Yes, both times by wide margins. The only candidates for President in the past century to lose the electoral college while winning the popular vote were Al Gore and Hillary Clinton.Obama's victories have led to various debates and discussions on the role of the popular vote and the electoral college system in the United States.

Acknowledging Historical Precedent

Both times he ran, then-Prez Barack Obama secured his victories in both the popular and electoral votes. Even his Vice President, Joe Biden, also won in 2020, further emphasizing the consistency of these outcomes.

However, between these victories, the situation was somewhat different. Not every Democratic candidate in the past century has achieved the same success. No Democrat has ever managed to win the presidency without also winning the popular vote. Conversely, there have been instances where they lost the election despite winning the popular vote.

Relevance of the Popularity Debate

Some critics argue that the focus on the national popular vote is misplaced. They believe that it can unfairly sway voter behavior in certain states and does not have any actual bearing on the election outcome. The Constitution strictly mandates that each state decide how its electors for president will be chosen.

There are ongoing debates about whether the electoral college system should be abolished or revised. In the 1960s and 1968, both JFK and Nixon barely won with narrow popular vote majorities. As a result, serious efforts were made in 1969 to propose abolishing the electoral college and base the election on the popular vote.

Expert Opinions and Future Projections

Political experts, particularly those from a progressive standpoint, argue that future elections might see more instances where the electoral vote winner does not also win the popular vote. This could potentially undermine the democratic principle that the will of the people should be the decisive factor in determining the winner.

Essentially, the popular vote and the electoral college system represent different ways of understanding and expressing the will of the American people. While the popular vote reflects the direct vote count from citizens, the electoral college system works to balance the interests of various states.

The 1800 Anomaly and the 12th Amendment

It’s worth noting that the election of 1800 presented a unique situation based on the original Article II definitions. Parties were not involved, and as a result, the "runner-up" method was employed. The 12th Amendment was quickly introduced to prevent such outcomes in the future.

Current Impact and Relevance

Four notable elections where the electoral vote winner did not win the popular vote include:

2016 - Donald Trump 2000 - George W. Bush 1888 - Benjamin Harrison 1876 - Rutherford B. Hayes 1824 - John Quincy Adams

These examples underscore the historical irregularities and potential challenges the system faces. The recent debate around the electoral college highlights the complexity and need for continued dialogue about the balance between national and state interests in presidential elections.

In summary, while the popular vote is an important metric of public opinion, the electoral college remains a crucial component of the U.S. presidential election system. The outcomes of Obama's election both times, as well as the broader context of popular and electoral vote dynamics, continue to shape the ongoing conversation about American democracy.