Has Climate Change Sentenced Us to a Future Underwater? A Geologist’s Perspective

Many discussions about climate change often take on a dramatic tone, painting a picture of a world that is rapidly drowning. However, the truth is far more nuanced and deserving of a careful assessment. In this article, we will explore the reality of sea level rise and land levels, as seen through the lens of a geologist. Our perspective is based on empirical data and decades of study in geology, rather than the generalized claims often propagated by climatologists and other fields.

Not Everything is Going Underwater Due to Climate Change

It is common to hear concerns that all of the land will be submerged due to rising sea levels caused by climate change. However, the reality is far less apocalyptic. Climate change does not necessarily lead to a world where we are all under water. Water levels are indeed increasing, but the scale and predictability of this change are often overstated in discussions dominated by climatological trends.

Climatology vs. Geology

Statements about climate and its effects can often sound alarmist. While opinions about climate change can vary widely, it is crucial to distinguish between departments that specialize in different aspects of environmental change. Climatologists focus on atmospheric changes and weather patterns, while geologists study the physical characteristics of the Earth, including the movement of land and sea levels.

Many discussions about climate change are marked by what some may perceive as a lack of scientific rigor. For instance, climatologists often operate within echo chambers, engage in thought police activities, and promote a particular narrative that can limit open debate. In contrast, geologists, who have a robust understanding of earth systems, offer a more grounded perspective based on concrete data and historical events.

Understanding Sea Levels and Climate

The relationship between sea levels and climate is complex. Sea levels can change for a variety of reasons, including changes in atmospheric pressure, temperature, and the Earth's tectonic movements. These factors interact in a dynamic and often unpredictable manner. Climate, defined as the average weather over a long period of time, is inherently variable and can be influenced by myriad factors, both natural and anthropogenic.

One of the most striking facts is that the IPCC, which played a pivotal role in shaping the international discourse on climate change, initially admitted that climate is a complex, coupled, chaotic, and non-linear system that is "essentially unpredictable." This admission came before the Paris Climate Convention, suggesting that the focus on predictability and consensus may have shifted since then. Today, we see a narrative that champions a consensus on human-caused global warming, often driven by political rather than scientific motivations.

The Role of Geology in Understanding Sea Levels

Geologists have a significant advantage when it comes to understanding sea levels and land levels. They can provide a historical context that spans millions of years, allowing us to better understand the nuances of these changes. For instance, while sea levels might be rising by 0 to 3 mm per year, this can vary significantly based on local geological conditions and the complex interplay of hydrodynamics.

Measuring sea levels is inherently challenging due to the Earth's shape and its dynamic nature. The Earth is not a perfect sphere but rather an oblate spheroid, which means that its shape affects how we measure altitude and sea levels. The movement of gravity, the gravitational pull of the moon, and the rotation of the Earth all impact these measurements. Furthermore, land itself is not as stable as some might think. Continents move due to tectonic shifts, and these movements can either raise or lower the land relative to sea levels.

Historical Context of Sea Level Changes

It is important to place current phenomena in a historical context. In the past 600 million years, the Earth has experienced two major types of climate: ice ages (15%) and ice-free periods (85%). During the ice-free periods, land was never covered by water to such an extent that we are witnessing today. In fact, there is no record of all land being submerged during the 85% of the past 600 million years that was ice-free.

This historical perspective underscores the fact that the Earth's climate has always been in a state of flux. While human activities have certainly contributed to changes in the environment, it is essential to recognize that these changes are part of the broader, natural cycle of the planet.

The Importance of Falsifiable Predictions

For a field of study to be considered science, it must be based on falsifiable hypotheses. This means that predictions must be testable and capable of being proven false, allowing for scientific progress and advancement. The discipline of science thrives on open debate, empirical testing, and the capacity to revise our understanding based on new evidence.

As we look towards the future, we should embrace a more rigorous approach to understanding climate change. This involves making predictions that can be tested and potentially falsified, rather than relying on vague consensus or alarmist narratives. By doing so, we can contribute to a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the natural world.

Geologists offer a perspective that is grounded in empirical data and historical context, providing a more nuanced and evidence-based understanding of sea level rise and climate change. While the future is uncertain, a geologist's perspective can help us navigate these complexities with a healthier dose of realism and scientific rigor.