What Would Have Been Different If the Iraqi Monarchy Had Not Been Overthrown?
The overthrow of the Iraqi monarchy in 1958 had profound consequences for the region, shaping the political and social landscape of the Middle East as we know it today. Imagine that this pivotal event did not occur; what impact would it have had on Iraq and the region as a whole?
Precedent and CIA Influence
A very stable country like Jordan experienced occasional Shi'a and Sunni extremist activities, and foreigners like Saddam Hussein surged from time to time. This scenario was set by the intervention of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the early 20th century when they helped the Saudi tribe establish dominance over what is now Saudi Arabia. Many events in the Middle East were, in effect, manipulated by the influence of the CIA.
Back to the Roots
In 1958, the Iraqi monarchy, which was predominantly Sunni, faced the challenge of leading a country with a majority Shi'ite population. This dynamic created a tension that became increasingly difficult to manage. The situation worsened when Abdul Kareem Kasem, a Shi'ite and ambitious leader, sought to nationalize the oil industry in Iraq. This move was seen as a direct challenge to the interests of the ruling class and the Western powers with significant stakes in the region.
The Saudi-Trial Connection
For the Iraqi monarchy to mimic the stability of the Jordanian monarchy, it would have needed to be significant and serve the safety of Israel. This stability was seen as crucial for the geopolitical balance in the region. However, Iraq's geographical and demographic complexity posed significant challenges. The presence of significant Shi'ite, Sunni, and Kurdish populations meant that any system of governance would need to be carefully crafted to maintain balance and peace.
Risk of Instability
I am skeptical that Iraq could have remained as stable as Jordan under these conditions. Jordan, for instance, is predominantly Sunni Arab (around 90%) with ethnic minorities comprising the remaining 10%, including Christians, Druze, and Circassians. Jordan's homogeneity and strict political boundaries have contributed to its relative stability. In contrast, Iraq's diverse population includes a Sunni Arab majority, a significant Shi'ite minority, and substantial Kurdish groups.
Economic and Political Considerations
A Sunni Arab ruling class leading an oil-producing but not oil-rich nation like Iraq would face additional pressure. The stability of such a monarchical system would depend heavily on the ability of the ruling class to manage the diverse ethnic and religious groups. Nationalizing oil would have been seen as a dangerous move, likely leading to more instability and conflict with Western powers and other regional players.
Conclusion and Reflection
The hypothetical scenario of an Iraqi monarchy surviving without the challenges it faced in the mid-20th century offers interesting insights into the historical and contemporary complexities of the Middle East. The foreign influence, particularly from the CIA, played a significant role in shaping the region's political and economic landscapes. While the stability of Jordan provides a useful comparison, Iraq's unique demographic and geopolitical context ensured a different path for its development.
Exploring this scenario helps us understand the importance of political stability, the role of ethnic and religious dynamics, and the influence of external powers in shaping the Middle East's complex web of alliances and conflicts.