BJP's Potential to Become the Ruling Party in Tamil Nadu in 2021
Introduction
With the upcoming Assembly elections in 2021, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is eyeing a path to become the ruling party in Tamil Nadu. Historically, the state has seen shifts in power, with the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIK) and Dravida Kazhagam (DMK) leading the political landscape. This article delves into the potential rise of the BJP in Tamil Nadu and explores the political dynamics at play.
Anti-Incumbency and Political Shifts
In states like Tamil Nadu, anti-incumbency builds up quickly. Currently, the DMK is the single largest party, but one misstep could shift the balance of power. While the All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) is slowly declining in strength, it still boasts a robust organizational structure comparable to that of the DMK. However, the issue with ADMK lies in its leadership and the lack of a strong successor.
The Indian National Congress (INC) is seen as an extension of the DMK and faces challenges in standing on its own. P. Vijay and P. Seesman, while contributing to the split in the vote, are not expected to make a significant difference in the outcome.
BJP's Growing Influence and Strategy
The BJP's organizational strength is on the rise, even in rural areas, positioning it as the first choice for young politicians and scholars. Under Anirudh Raman's leadership (alias Annamalai), the BJP is poised for significant growth. Much like Sharad Pawar's efforts in Karnataka, Anirudh Raman can replicate these achievements in Tamil Nadu within a shorter timeframe.
Despite being in power at the central government, the BJP has not been able to demonstrate significant achievements in Tamil Nadu. Their negative campaigning and strategies, such as the yet-to-be-built AIIMS in Madurai, have not garnered them the confidence of the voters. Additionally, the entry of new entrants like actor P. Vijay, who appeals to young voters, presents a challenge for the BJP.
Challenges and Future Prospects
The BJP's presence in Tamil Nadu remains largely due to its position at the central government. Its future success will depend on the actions of the Congress, which may only serve as a temporary ally for the BJP until it faces significant blunders. Unless the Congress falters, the BJP might find itself a mere representative of the union government in the state.
Historically, Dravida parties in Tamil Nadu never came to power without alliances, either with the Congress or the BJP. This has been a pattern since 1967, when Annadurai formed an alliance with the Swatantra Party and other Hindu leaders. The people of Tamil Nadu have often swayed by nationalist and Hindu cultural ideologies, which could tip the balance in favor of the BJP with support from regional parties like the Piramal Hindu Munnani, Amma Makkal Katchi, and Tamil Nadu Manilagarasi.
With these factors in mind, the BJP holds the potential to emerge as the ruling party in Tamil Nadu in the coming elections. However, the success of their campaign will heavily depend on addressing the concerns of the people and fostering a sense of national unity and cultural identity.
Conclusion
The political landscape of Tamil Nadu is dynamic, and the BJP's rise in the 2021 Assembly elections could mark a significant shift in the state's power balance. By understanding and addressing the existing political dynamics, the BJP could position itself to become the ruling party, but it will need to navigate the challenges of anti-incumbency and the strategic maneuvers of other parties.